In general, the rating system considers three main attributes: Size and regional attribute: to consider the level of the assessment, i.e., on an individual building/facility level, city level, country level, or global level (see Figure 12); Defining structural system and classification modeling: to consider the representativeness of the structural system, ensuring an appropriate definition of the building classification; and. However, some researchers tend to use this distribution in generating fragility curves despite the fact that their intensity measure is discrete and positive (e.g., Yamaguchi & Yamazaki, 2001). Building is considered as slightly damaged. The process should be repeated for the selected suite of ground motions. Recently, efforts have been carried out within the Global Earthquake Model (Jaiswal, Wald, Perkins, Aspinall, & Kiremidjian, 2013) trying to elicit expert opinion on uncertain quantities and providing clear definitions with respect to biases, assumptions, and expert opinions in order to improve the philosophy of the methods. People differ in their exposure to risk as a result of their social group, gender, ethnic or other identity, age and other factors. Table 3 lists the most widely-used classification schemes for either global or regional construction typologies along with the different classification criteria. it makes the area more vulnerable to disasters as compared to an area that is far away from the origin of the disaster. 2 Physical Vulnerability of Electric Systems to Natural Disasters and Sabotage occurred here. If an area lies near the coast lines,… Hence, special care should be given when selecting the existing vulnerability models that are available from literature, in order to ensure a reliable earthquake loss assessment. ATC-58-2 (ATC 2003), Vision 2000 (SEAOC 1995), Minor hairline cracking (0.02″); limited yielding possible at a few locations; no crushing (strains below 0.003). Equally, development choices made by individuals, households, communities and governments increase or reduce the risk of disasters. The conditions determined by physical, ... As the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNDRR convenes partners and coordinates activities to create safer, more resilient communities. From a seismic risk analysis perspective, the use of the physical vulnerability concept started with the development of the earthquake loss estimation (ELE) discipline in the early 1980s, which aimed at predicting the consequences of earthquake shaking for an individual structure or for a portfolio of buildings or infrastructure facilities (EERI, 1984). Physical Vulnerability may be determined by aspects such as population density levels, remoteness of a settlement, the site, design and materials used for critical infrastructure and for housing (UNISDR). The generation of Damage Probability Matrices (DPM), which, in discrete form, express the conditional probability of a damage state (dsi) being reached given a certain level of ground-motion intensity measure (IM), has been one of the most common vulnerability assessment methods from this category and used in different parts of the world. How to categorize buildings with varying characteristics as in the same building class? This event has a probability of occurrence within a specified period of time and within a given area, and has a given intensity.” These hazardous events may be potentially harmful to pe… Disaster, as defined by the United Nations, is a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or society, which involve widespread human, material, economic or environmental impacts that exceed the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources [1]. The transformation of the physical damage into economic loss can be conducted through the following total probability relationship: where n is the number of damage states considered, P(dsi | IM) is the probability of a building sustaining damage state dsi given the intensity measure IM; E(C>c|dsi) is the complementary cumulative distribution of the cost (loss) given dsi; E(C>c|im is the complementary cumulative distribution of cost (or loss) given a level of intensity IM. One of the main shortcomings when using intensities to predict earthquake damage may lie in the fact that intensity does not have any connection to the frequency (spectral) content of seismic ground motion. Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards - edited by Sven Fuchs March 2018 Skip to main content Accessibility help We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. This displacement stands for the mean displacement a building typology will reach under the respective seismic demand. In fact, this technique of analysis is considered to be quite impractical for everyday use. Defining the building structural system for vulnerability measurement. These issues and challenges are mostly related to the level of knowledge and the level of detail of data input to be used for the assessment, as well as to the different approaches and assumptions to be adopted and implemented (e.g., the level of simplification in modeling, the analysis process to be adopted in order to reduce the calculation effort) in measuring vulnerability. The present article provides a comprehensive summary about the term physical vulnerability and its usage within the field of earthquake engineering and risk reduction. Each expert was asked to fill in a comprehensive questionnaire by utilizing his/her best knowledge. Wealth. In principle, each method used to provide building vulnerability information is based on expert opinion to some extent, since the damage predictions are based on the subjective opinion of the expert when, for instance, using the terms “few”, “many,” and “most”. Continuous physical damage-to-ground motion intensity curves that are directly based on damage to buildings from past earthquake events were introduced slightly later than the DPMs. Defining vulnerability, though, poses a challenge. An application example is presented in Figure 11, showing the strength of the physical vulnerability representativeness on the risk assessment outcomes (i.e., damage and economic loss). Later, when the reinsurance industry also began paying greater attention to this topic in order to improve catastrophe risk models, seismic physical vulnerability became a term used to express not only the seismic performance of a structure but also to estimate the economic consequences of the physical damage in terms of monetary losses (FEMA, 2008). Existing approaches for physical damage-to-ground motion intensity correlations. A number of problems can be associated with the existing empirical methods and approaches for vulnerability assessment. The process of using these physical vulnerability models in order to generate physical damage distribution and the conversion in terms of monetary losses accrued as the result of the damage, is illustrated in Figure 9. Physical vulnerability includes the difficulty in access to water resources, means of communications, hospitals, police stations, fire brigades, roads, bridges and exits of a building or/an area, in case of disasters. AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis AR5 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change Capacity and Vulnerability are opposite facets of the same coin. Md. Represents a significant hazard to life safety resulting from failure of non-structural components. In general, most of the existing empirical approaches were developed based on the use of macroseismic intensities for characterizing the earthquake shaking; examples include the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale (Wood & Neumann, 1931), Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) scale (Medvedev, Sponheuer, & Karnik, 1965), European Macroseismic Scale—EMS-98 (Grünthal, 1998), and the parameter-less scale of seismic intensity PSI (Spence, Coburn, Sakai, & Pomonis, 1991). Social Vulnerability and Physical Infrastructure The most frequent Other challenges that are commonly encountered when developing physical vulnerability models are the paucity of exposure information and the lack of knowledge due to either technical or nontechnical problems, such as inventory data that would allow for accurate building stock modeling, or economic data that would allow for a better conversion from damage to monetary losses. Rapid urbanization configures disaster risks through a complex association of concentrated populations, social exclusion and poverty compounded by physical vulnerability Giga-fren In the case of small states, the Bank has to take into account additional factors of economic and physical vulnerability . The median IDA curve is defined as 50% of all the maximum responses recorded at each level of IM, as shown in Figure 7. This article contributes to the growing body of work that aims to understand the causal factors of disaster vulnerability, but with a specific focus on small island developing states. There is a clear understanding and agreement among the engineering and scientific communities that one should move forward using more advanced modeling strategies that are able to relax the often unrealistic assumptions and forget about the simplified assumptions used so far. The article first develops a framework for understanding disaster vulnerability, drawing on Procedure of seismic physical vulnerability assessment using Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA). There is also the GEM-VEM database (Rossetto, D’Ayala, Ioannou, & Meslem, 2014) collected from different sources and regions/countries, which includes material and labor costs for structural and nonstructural components. Specifically, Figure 6-1 indicates the effects of a disaster are determined by three preimpact conditions—hazard exposure, physical vulnerability, and social vulnerability. if an area lies near the coast lines, fault lines, unstable hills etc. A large number of methods have been developed for quantifying physical vulnerability. Globally, the negative influence of natural disasters is steadily increasing over the past decades in terms of the rising number of people affected and the growing proportion of … Nonstructural components can be divided into two categories: those which may contribute to the response behavior of the structure (and thereby to the monetary loss connected to the damage), and those which do not contribute to the response behavior of the structure, but which are important to consider as they contribute to the reconstruction costs. While the intensity is important, of equal or greater importance is the presence of a population whose demographic or socioeconomic characteristics may place its members at greater risk of harm before, during, and after a disaster. Disaster Risk, Social Vulnerability and Economic Development Patrick Wardy Gerald Shivelyz June 23, 2011 Abstract We examine the extent to which economic development reduces both a country’s disaster risk ... tion of physical, human, social and political capital in a society. We created an index ranging between 0 and 1 for each indicator of physical vulnerability (human set- tlements in areas of high risk and structural resistance) and another similar index resulting from To determine people’s vulnerability, two questions need to be asked: Physical, economic, social and political factors determine people’s level of vulnerability and the extent of their capacity to resist, cope with and recover from hazards. Since its introduction, this component has received much attention by research engineers and insurance analysts and has resulted in the development of a large number of methods, which can be divided into three main categories: empirical, analytical, and expert judgment/opinion. This article contributes to the growing body of work that aims to understand the causal factors of disaster vulnerability, but with a specific focus on small island developing states. Rapid urbanization configures disaster risks through a complex association of concentrated populations, social exclusion and poverty compounded by physical vulnerability Giga-fren In the case of small states, the Bank has to take into account additional factors of economic and physical vulnerability . The severity of a disaster depends on both the physical nature of the extreme event and the social nature of the human populations affected by the event. To identify a capacity curve, which is defined as the relationship between the base shear force and the lateral displacement of a control node of the building (Goel, 2005), a nonlinear structural analysis method such as the nonlinear quasi-static “pushover” analysis (U.S. Army, 1986; ATC, 1996; FEMA, 2000) is required. A more realistic 3D model was only used in few studies (e.g., Rossetto & Elnashai, 2003). The uncertainty in the demand is introduced by the record-to-record variability, which captures the variability in the complexity of the mechanism of the seismic source, path attenuation, and site effects of the seismic event. Disasters jeopardize development gains. The same may apply to insurance and reinsurance industry in developing catastrophe models (also known as CAT models). Copyright 2020 - International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies - Legal Disclaimer - Fraud Notice, COMMUNITY EPIDEMIC & PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS, National Society Preparedness for Effective Response, Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Guidelines. The most visible area of vulnerability is physical/material poverty. This DPM uses qualitative descriptions of “Few,” “Many,” and “Most” for the five damage grades (Grade 1 to Grade 5) for the levels of intensity ranging from V to XII. For instance, the HAZUS building classification scheme (see Table 2a), which was developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA-NIBS, 2003), has been one of the most widely used for vulnerability assessment in the United States. 6 Approaches to Disaster Management - Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters Vogel and O’Brien [17] emphasize that vulnerability is: (a) multi-dimensional and differential (varies for different dimensions of a single element or group of elements and from a physical Vulnerability is the inability to resist a hazard or to respond when a disaster has occurred. In addition to the aforementioned parameters, i.e., overall building height, level of code design, or period of construction (the age of a building is sometimes used as an indirect indicator of the seismic design level, especially in areas where seismic codes have been adopted; it can also indicate typical construction practices in a given region) can also have a strong impact on building vulnerability (FEMA-177, 1989). These methods are differentiated through the approaches and assumptions implemented for the correlation of physical damage with a ground-motion intensity measure. Power systems in other countries, especially in Latin America and Europe, have suffered much worse and more frequent damage. Extensive cracking and some crushing but wall remains in place; no falling units. The mathematical form for such curves is: where Φ‎ is the standard normal cumulative distribution function; α‎DS|IM is the lognormal mean of the generic structural response conditioned on the ground motion intensity, IM; and β‎ is the lognormal standard deviation of DS|IM. (a) HAZUS building classification scheme (FEMA-NIBS, 2003), (b) EMS-98 building classification scheme (Grünthal, 1998). The UNISDR defines vulnerability as “the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards” (UNISDR 2009).Vulnerability may vary within a population by subgroup (e.g. Partial or total failure/cracking of columns and beams. Its popularity can be attributed to its three properties: The function is constrained in the y-axis between (0, 1), which is ideal for fitting data points expressing aggregated probabilities. Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Disaster Management Working Paper 2/2001 3 Each of the three areas covers a wide range of features: Physical/material vulnerability and capacity. In general, the categorization of building damage can be either done in a qualitative descriptive manner by describing the damaging effects to the structure, or in a quantitative manner by assigning capacity thresholds (i.e., an empirical definition of damage state thresholds) to an individual structural element or to the entire building. Many research programs have produced a compendium of empirical Damage Factor values (including material and labor costs), given a certain damage threshold, and which can be used as default values in cases when economic data (i.e., building repair or reconstruction costs for a given damage state ds) are not available (D’Ayala, Meslem, Vamvatsikos, Porter, & Rossetto, 2015). In the fields of earthquake engineering and seismic risk reduction the term “physical vulnerability” defines the component that translates the relationship between seismic shaking intensity, dynamic structural uake damage and loss assessment discipline in the early 1980s, which aimed at predicting the consequences of earthquake shaking for an individual building or a portfolio of buildings. How to choose certain (building-related) parameters which are essential to the study’s outcome but often are not readily available, such as material parameters or reinforcement detailing? a range of social, economic, physical, and political vul-nerabilities. Such kinds of seismic vulnerability assessments were first carried out in the United States and introduced in ATC-13 (ATC, 1985). At this stage, one of the challenges that is often encountered is that some of these assumptions may highly affect the reliability and accuracy of the resulted physical vulnerability models in a negative way, hence introducing important uncertainties in estimating and predicting the inherent risk (i.e., estimated damage and losses). Regarding the analytical-based methods, the main challenge remains the quantification and modeling of the uncertainties (due to simplified assumptions) that would be involved at each stage of the analysis. The analytical methods for measuring seismic physical vulnerability may also be called purely theoretical approaches, since, in contrast to the empirical or expert judgment-based methods, they are not based on observation, but rather on the theoretical simulation of physical damage under earthquake loading. Figure 4 presents the graphical representation of a set of fragility curves for conditional probabilities of a building experiencing different damage states dsi. Manhood is personified in those who leave behind safety. The article first develops a framework for understanding disaster vulnerability, drawing on Also, as Anderson (2005) notes, knowledge of children’s vulnerability is important from a social scientific Physical vulnerability includes the difficulty in access to water resources, means of communications, hospitals, police stations, fire brigades, roads, bridges and exits of a building or/an area, in case of disasters. The vulnerability classes range from A to F, from the most vulnerable to the least vulnerable typologies, where the first three classes (A to C) cover adobe and stone houses, brick buildings, and reinforced-concrete constructions without any ERD, while vulnerability classes D to F address reinforced and confined masonry constructions, concrete buildings with a certain level of ERD, and steel and timber buildings. Figure 8. Vulnerability to Disasters 1. This includes the purpose of the assessment (at both the individual building level and the building stock level), the size of the urban center, the prevalent building typologies within it, and the availability of the required data input (i.e., the quality and level of details) in order to accurately define the typology class and to develop a consistent model that would best represent the real behavior of the individual building or building stock selected, and thereby better quantify the uncertainty (Figure 10). They are also resourceful and resilient in a crisis and play a crucial role in recovery. Fifty-seven articles were identified in the primary search, with seven studies selected for review. There also are three event-specific conditions, hazard event characteristics, improvised disaster responses, and improvised disaster … However, these assumptions and simplifications may greatly decrease the reliability and accuracy of the results obtained, introducing significant uncertainties into the vulnerability model construction process. Extensive cracking and crushing; portions of face course shed. This, in turn, has pushed governments from different earthquake-prone countries to implement many research programs aimed at developing prevention and mitigation actions, or in refining code provisions and guidelines. Second, without a sustained focus on children, their special needs may be neglected. The ATC-13 report developed the DPM for 78 structural typologies, out of which 40 belonged to buildings. In general, physical vulnerability has become one of the main key components used as model input data by agencies when developinresponse (physical damage), and cost of repair for a particular class of buildings or infrastructure facilities. This information was then used for developing mitigation plans and prevention actions (i.e., retrofitting solutions to improve the seismic response, etc.). The vulnerability score of ward no. Definition, concept & Relationship. Vulnerability analysis is generally conducted in three main steps: (1) definition of the building’s structural system; (2) estimation of the physical damage given the ground-motion intensity; and (3) evaluation of the overall seismic performance, i.e., the level of vulnerability, given the ground-motion intensity. The methods vary from simplified, non-numerically-based, to nonlinear static and dynamic numerically-based analyses of increasing complexity and accuracy. Table 6 illustrates an example of a DPM-based physical vulnerability model. the uncertainty associated with the damage state threshold. It includes land, climate, Since the late 1990s, many methods have been introduced for quantifying physical vulnerability. income level or type of livelihood) and may change over time, Uncertainties are inevitable in any practical study of vulnerability assessment and should be expressed and quantified. Disaster vulnerability and resiliency theorists recognize that every community has varying degrees of disaster vulnerability and the potential to recover resiliently (Queiro-Tajalli & Campbell, 2002). The most frequent We further appreciate the comments of two anonymous reviewers that allowed us to greatly improve the present manuscript. 9 for PC09 is 4.82. These ranges exist because vulnerability also depends on factors other than those previously discussed, such as quality of workmanship, state of preservation, regularity, ductility, position, interventions for strengthening, and earthquake-resistant design level. Earthquake risk maps for the city of Santiago de Cuba (Cuba), using customized and collected physical vulnerability models. In 1971, the city’s population was only 200,000, whereas the 2011 census revealed a population of more than 960,000 with a population density of more than 2,010 persons/km2. Recently, a default source of data (average component-level performance and its associated loss/cost) for the United States building stock has been developed and provided in ATC-58 PACT/FEMA P-58 (FEMA, 2012) that can be used to implement this type of analysis.

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